Communicating Risk with Credibility

Wes Hill
Jul 26
6 min read

Risk has always been a foundational element of the fire service – embedded in every response, operation, and leadership conversation we engage in. Yet too often, risk is seen solely as an external threat to be controlled on-scene or brushed aside through outdated assumptions passed down by distant decision-makers. While tactical risk mitigation remains essential, today’s environment demands something more.

It’s time we reframe how fire service leaders understand, evaluate, and communicate risk –especially at the strategic level.

If you serve at your organization’s leadership table – whether as a battalion chief, senior officer, or fire chief – your role is no longer just to manage risk in the field. You have a responsibility to define it clearly, frame it credibly, and communicate it in a way that informs sound planning, policy, and investment decisions.

Community Risk Assessment and Standards of Cover: The Risk Baseline

Any serious conversation about risk starts with understanding your community. A well-built Community Risk Assessment (CRA) helps us identify the “what and where”. Telling the story of:

Who lives in our jurisdiction
What infrastructure we protect
Where our vulnerabilities lie
How history shapes future likelihoods.

When paired with a solid Standards of Cover (SOC) model, we don’t just know the risk – we know how we're currently postured to respond to the threat. Continuing to tell the story, like:

What are our target response time objectives for each identified service demand and risk category?
How are our current resources and deployment models aligned to meet performance benchmarks and accommodate projected community growth?
Where do gaps exist between our available effective response force and the staffing needed to address identified community risks?
How does unit hour utilization and overlapping call analytics affect our service reliability and community risk exposure?

As you put the pieces together, this is where leadership becomes essential: data must lead to insight, and insight must lead to action.

Fire service leaders must translate complex analytics, layered GIS maps, and extensive charts into a clear, compelling narrative. One that connects operational realities to strategic decisions, especially around resource allocation and budget priorities.

Reframing Risk: The Leadership Equation

Throughout my career, I’ve been fortunate to quietly learn under some truly battle-tested leaders. The kind who laughs off overcomplicated risk models because they’ve lived through what happens when risk isn’t aligned with real-world outcomes.

From them, I’ve come to appreciate a simple, no-nonsense formula – one that briefs well, communicates clearly, and speaks facts to senior decision-makers.

Risk = Requirement – (Capability + Resources)

Let’s do the math:

Capability

Reflects what you are able to do.

You need to be honest with yourselves. Don’t just analyze what you want to have, focus on what you actually have. Analyze your department’s skillsets, training, leadership, and systems.

Example:

I see departments invest in specialty apparatus or trailers to demonstrate they can meet certain requirements. But when you peal back the layers, there’s often no certifications, training, or policy infrastructure to support the program.

Reflection Question:

“How ready are you to respond and perform to your service delivery capabilities?”

Resources

What do you have to work with.

This includes your people, apparatus, funding, facilities, and mutual aid agreements.

Example:

Departments often fail to align their resources with mission demands. A shortfall that creates a “delta” between what’s required and what’s available, ultimately compromising their ability to deliver safe and effective responses. This gap is frequently a result of poor organizational leadership or a lack of strategic planning.

Reflection Question:

“Do your resources meet the demand of your mission?”

The sum of Capabilities and Resources provides an overview of the Organization’s Capacity. This analysis will become the topic of leverage with decision-makers.

Requirements

What your community realistically needs.

This is an excellent opportunity to ask your senior decision-makers:

“In your vision, what should fire-based emergency services look like in this community?”

This question helps you connect their strategic outlook with the operational realities uncovered in your CRA/SOC. This will create a shared foundation for decisions moving forward.

Example:

Departments fail to incorporate standards, regulations, and community expectations into their organizational vision. Failure arises from developing fictious requirements based on ego driven leaders.

Reflection Question:

“Does your organizational capacity meet the demands of your mission requirements?”

If capability and resources don’t meet the requirement, the difference is risk. And that gap is the leader’s responsibility to communicate.

Let me be clear – that gap isn't just an operational concern; it’s a leadership opportunity.

Communicating Risk to Those in Power

Understanding risk is the first step. Communicating it strategically is where real leadership shows up. Leaders must not just warn of gaps – they must frame those gaps as a decision point and, ultimately, a leadership opportunity.

Through my experience, I have come to use this Risk – Decision – Opportunity (RDO) framework when speaking with senior leaders. Too often, we approach decision-makers only in the Risk Zone – pointing to the fire but not giving them the hose or showing them the view from putting it out. The RDO framework empowers you to communicate like a strategic leader, not just a reactionary manager.

Here’s how fire service leaders can apply the RDO model when briefing elected officials, city executives, or oversight boards:

Define the Risk Using the Equation.

Risk = Requirement – (Capability + Resources)

The formula frames the “gap” between what you need to achieve and what you have to achieve it with. Opportunities are created from areas where you are falling short. This simplifies your talking points into an easily articulated decision brief to senior leaders. Narrowing the course of action – keeping your talking points clean, strategic, and hard to ignore.

Decision Point: “Do we address the EMS service gap now through targeted investment, or continue to absorb rising risk to patient outcomes and workforce fatigue?”

Opportunity: Acknowledge the shortfall as a chance to innovate – whether through staffing, training, public-private partnerships, or system redesign.

Ground Risk in Community-Specific Realities.

Connect the gap directly to your Community Risk Assessment (CRA). This includes local population growth, industrial expansion, high-risk areas (like wildland-urban interfaces), and call volume trends.

Keep in mind this formula prepares you to speak about risk but does not tell you if the risk is acceptable. Risk tolerance varies depending on the community and the stakeholders leading it. You must incorporate probability versus impact, within your own community profile.

Decision Point: “Are we going to align our response model with the new industrial park being built, or accept longer response times and greater operational strain?”

Opportunity: Position the discussion as a chance to shape the future – not react to it. Forward-looking leaders prepare systems before growth overwhelms them.

Shift from Needs to Strategic Outcomes.

Avoid emotional appeals like “we need more firefighters or people will die.” These trigger resistance. Instead, frame how specific decisions influence operational outcomes.

Decision Point: “Do we maintain current staffing and risk further erosion of our response time benchmark – or staff up strategically to stabilize high-risk zones?”

Opportunity: Reframe resource requests as investments with measurable ROI in safety, insurance ratings (ISO), firefighter retention, and economical impacts.

Use Visuals as Strategic Support.

GIS maps, response curves, and heat maps bring risk to life – but keep visuals as support, not the main show.

Decision Point: “This map illustrates where fire station 1’s is failing to meet specified response time benchmarks – do we act, or accept delayed response in these neighborhoods?”

Opportunity: Visuals help decision-makers see the risk and envision the fix. I recommend making visuals back up slides, so they don’t become a distraction from the conversation.

Don’t Wait for the Crisis.

Proactive risk communication builds leadership technical creditability. Waiting until tragedy strikes puts you in a reactive, defensive posture.

Decision Point: “Will we lead ahead of the curve or wait until failure forces us into reaction? These prepared Courses of Action (COAs) create the greatest opportunity for a successful future.”

Opportunity: Leading with foresight earns trust. It positions your agency as not just emergency responders, but stewards of community resilience.

From Risk-Aware to Risk-Ready

The most successful fire service leaders aren’t just aware of risk — they’re fluent in it. They see it not as a scare tactic, but as a strategic planning tool. They use it to evaluate deployment models, prioritize investments, and most importantly, to advocate for the safety of their people and the communities they serve.

Reframing risk through the lens of:

Risk = Requirement – (Capability + Resources)

…allows you to lead smarter, communicate clearer, and advocate more effectively.

Final Thought: Lead with Clarity – Not Crisis

If you’re mentoring the next generation of leaders, teach them the Risk – Decision – Opportunity framework. This will shift their leadership capability from only being an emotional manager, to a respected strategic visionary. Speak the language of your decision-makers: